If Greece votes Sunday to walk away from its debts and by extension, the European Union, the Germans might have the most to lose. Their best example lies right across the border in Switzerland, where prudent fiscal management led the Swiss franc to soar 48% between 2009 and 2011. As the world financial system crumbled, investors poured their money into the little mountain nation and bid its currency up so high that exporters have had a hard time selling their goods until the Swiss National Bank began furiously selling francs to drive down its value.
“Right now, deposits are pouring into Germany from throughout the periphery” of Europe, said Carmen Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics whose 2009 best-seller with Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, “This Time It’s Different,” largely predicted the current sovereign debt crisis. “With these kind of inflows the Deutschmark would be appreciating through the roof.” (...)