Coming soon to a debt crisis near you: the "Spexit." One analyst believes the so-called "Grexit"—a Greek exit from the euro—will not happen and thinks instead that a Spexit, Spain leaving the euro, is much more likely.
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“The euro debt crisis, like any really spectacular geo-economic event, is spawning its own special vocabulary” said Matthew Lynn of Strategy Economics on Wednesday.
We can now add Spexit to a list which includes Merkozy and Grexit, and Lynn believes the chances of Spain leaving the euro are now higher than those of Greece leaving.
“The Spanish are a lot more likely to pull out of the euro than the Greeks, or indeed any of the peripheral countries” said Lynn.
“They are too big to rescue, they have no political hang-ups about rupturing their relations with the European Union, they are already fed up with austerity, and there is a bigger Spanish-speaking world for them to grow into,” said Lynn.
“The banking system is teetering on the edge of a full-scale run. Bankia has already had to be bailed out by the government, and there are fears that others might be in just as bad shape,” said Lynn, who notes that there has never been a property crash that was not followed by a banking crisis.
“One in four Spanish households now have no bread-winner. Retail sales are falling 10 percent year-on-year. Yet the prescription from Brussels and Berlin is precisely the same as it has been for every other country struggling with the euro. Endure a deep recession. Let unemployment rise. Allow wages to fall until you claw back competitiveness," he said.
Greece will stay in as it is affordable to bail them out again, according to Lynn, who believes this is not the case with Spain.
“If the Greeks vote for a government that rejects the bailout package, some more money can be thrown at them. Pumping 10 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) into the economy only costs 23 billion euros ($28.6 billion) – peanuts. That is not true of Spain,” said Lynn.
“The Greeks understandably feel nervous about life outside the euro zone. They don’t really make anything. (...)